'It'll be ugly when half the software industry goes away' - pundit

"The software business, I think, is at a crossroads," Lane said. Being even more direct, he added, "Software prices are going to fall rapidly."

Lane sees "a large no man's land" of old line software makers trapped between Microsoft, Oracle and SAP, which consume 75 per cent of the available revenue, and start-ups such as Salesforce.com that carry no baggage. Such software makers may seem strong with, say, $300m or so in market capitalization, but they're really just waiting in line at the slaughterhouse. They don't have the might to compete against the big three or the cost structures capable of defeating new players.